add data for Nate's methodology feature

Author: Andrei Scheinkman

forecast-methodology/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+### Airline safety data
+
+The data behind the story, [Here’s What’s Under The Hood Of Our Senate Forecasting Model](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-whats-under-the-hood-of-our-senate-forecasting-model)
+
+Header | Definition
+---|---------
+`state` | Election
+`year` | Year of election
+`candidate` | Last name
+`forecast_prob` | Probability of winning election per FiveThirtyEight Election Day forecast
+`result` | `Win` or `Loss`
+
+For archived results, see:
+
+ * *2008* https://web.archive.org/web/20081106113055/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
+ * *2010* http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
+ * *2012* http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

forecast-methodology/historical-senate-predictions.csv

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+state,year,candidate,forecast_prob,result,winflagAlabama,2008,Sessions,1.00,Win,1Alabama,2008,Figures,0.00,Lose,0Alabama,2010,Shelby,1.00,Win,1Alabama,2010,Barnes,0.00,Loss,0Alaska,2008,Begich,1.00,Win,1Alaska,2008,Stevens,0.00,Lose,0Alaska,2010,Miller,0.71,Lose,0Alaska,2010,Murkowski,0.21,Win,1Alaska,2010,McAdams,0.08,Loss,0Arizona,2010,Glassman,1.00,Win,1Arizona,2010,McCain,0.00,Loss,0Arizona,2012,Flake,0.96,Win,1Arizona,2012,Carmona,0.04,Loss,0Arkansas,2008,Pryor,1.00,Win,1Arkansas,2010,Boozman,1.00,Win,1Arkansas,2010,Lincoln,0.00,Loss,0California,2012,Feinstein,1.00,Win,1California,2012,Emken,0.00,Loss,0Colorado,2008,M. Udall,1.00,Win,1Colorado,2008,Schaeffer,0.00,Lose,0Colorado,2010,Buck,0.65,Loss,0Colorado,2010,Bennett,0.35,Win,1Connecticut,2010,Blumenthal,1.00,Win,1Connecticut,2010,McMahon,0.00,Loss,0Connecticut,2012,Murphy,0.96,Win,1Connecticut,2012,McMahon,0.04,Loss,0Delaware,2008,Biden,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2008,O'Connell,0.00,Lose,0Delaware,2010,Coons,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2010,O'Donnell,0.00,Loss,0Delaware,2012,Carper,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2012,Wade,0.00,Loss,0Florida,2010,Rubio,0.97,Win,1Florida,2010,Crist,0.03,Loss,0Florida,2010,Meeks,0.00,Loss,0Florida,2012,Nelson,1.00,Win,1Florida,2012,Mack,0.00,Loss,0Georgia,2008,Chambilss,0.88,Win,1Georgia,2008,Martin,0.12,Lose,0Georgia,2010,Isakson,1.00,Win,1Georgia,2010,Thurmond,0.00,Loss,0Hawaii,2010,Inouye,1.00,Win,1Hawaii,2010,Cavasso,0.00,Loss,0Hawaii,2012,Hirono,1.00,Win,1Hawaii,2012,Lingle,0.00,Loss,0Idaho,2008,Risch,1.00,Win,1Idaho,2008,LaRocco,0.00,Lose,0Idaho,2010,Crapo,1.00,Win,1Idaho,2010,Sullivan,0.00,Loss,0Illinois,2008,Durbin,1.00,Win,1Illinois,2008,Sauerberg,0.00,Lose,0Illinois,2010,Kirk,0.69,Win,1Illinois,2010,Giannoulias,0.31,Loss,0Indiana,2010,Coats,1.00,Win,1Indiana,2010,Ellsworth,0.00,Loss,0Indiana,2012,Donnelly,0.70,Win,1Indiana,2012,Lingle,0.30,Loss,0Iowa,2008,Harkin,1.00,Win,1Iowa,2008,Reed,0.00,Lose,0Iowa,2010,Grassley,1.00,Win,1Iowa,2010,Conlin,0.00,Loss,0Kansas,2008,Roberts,1.00,Win,1Kansas,2008,Slattery,0.00,Lose,0Kansas,2010,Moran,1.00,Win,1Kansas,2010,Johnston,0.00,Loss,0Kentucky,2008,McConnell,0.92,Win,1Kentucky,2008,Lunsford,0.08,Lose,0Kentucky,2010,Paul,1.00,Win,1Kentucky,2010,Conway,0.00,Loss,0Louisiana,2008,Landireu,1.00,Win,1Louisiana,2008,Kennedy,0.00,Lose,0Louisiana,2010,Vitter,1.00,Win,1Louisiana,2010,Melancon,0.00,Loss,0Maine,2008,Collins,1.00,Win,1Maine,2008,Allen,0.00,Lose,0Maine,2012,King,0.93,Win,1Maine,2012,Summers,0.06,Loss,0Maine,2012,Dill,0.01,Loss,0Maryland,2010,Murkowski,1.00,Win,1Maryland,2010,Wargotz,0.00,Loss,0Maryland,2012,Cardin,1.00,Win,1Maryland,2012,Bongino,0.00,Loss,0Massachusetts,2008,Kerry,1.00,Win,1Massachusetts,2008,Beatty,0.00,Lose,0Massachusetts,2012,Warren,0.94,Win,1Massachusetts,2012,Brown,0.06,Loss,0Michigan,2008,Levin,1.00,Win,1Michigan,2008,Hoogendyk,0.00,Lose,0Michigan,2012,Stabenow,1.00,Win,1Michigan,2012,Hoekstra,0.00,Loss,0Minnesota,2008,Franken,0.52,Win,1Minnesota,2008,Coleman,0.48,Lose,0Minnesota,2012,Klobuchar,1.00,Win,1Minnesota,2012,Bills,0.00,Loss,0Mississippi,2008,Cochran,1.00,Win,1Mississippi,2008,Fleming,0.00,Lose,0Mississippi,2012,Wicker,1.00,Win,1Mississippi,2012,Gore,0.00,Loss,0Mississippi (special election),2008,Wicker,0.94,Win,1Mississippi (special election),2008,Musgrove,0.06,Lose,0Missouri,2010,Blunt,0.99,Win,1Missouri,2010,Carnahan,0.01,Loss,0Missouri,2012,McCaskill,0.98,Win,1Missouri,2012,Akin,0.02,Loss,0Montana,2008,Baucus,1.00,Win,1Montana,2008,Kelleher,0.00,Lose,0Montana,2012,Rehberg,0.66,Win,1Montana,2012,Tester,0.34,Loss,0Nebraska,2008,Johanns,0.99,Win,1Nebraska,2008,Kleeb,0.01,Lose,0Nebraska,2012,Fischer,0.99,Win,1Nebraska,2012,Kerrey,0.01,Loss,0Nevada,2010,Angle,0.83,Loss,0Nevada,2010,Reid,0.17,Win,1Nevada,2012,Heller,0.83,Win,1Nevada,2012,Berkeley,0.17,Loss,0New Hampshire,2008,Shaheen,0.99,Win,1New Hampshire,2008,Sununu,0.01,Lose,0New Hampshire,2010,Ayotte,1.00,Win,1New Hampshire,2010,Hodes,0.00,Loss,0New Jersey,2008,Lautenberg,1.00,Win,1New Jersey,2008,Zimmer,0.00,Lose,0New Jersey,2012,Menendez,1.00,Win,1New Jersey,2012,Kyrillos,0.00,Loss,0New Mexico,2008,T. Udall,1.00,Win,1New Mexico,2008,Pearce,0.00,Lose,0New Mexico,2012,Heinrich,0.97,Win,1New Mexico,2012,Wilson,0.03,Loss,0New York,2010,Schumer,1.00,Win,1New York,2010,Townsend,0.00,Loss,0New York,2012,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1New York,2012,Long,0.00,Loss,0New York (special election),2010,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1New York (special election),2010,DioGuardi,0.00,Loss,0North Carolina,2008,Hagan,0.88,Win,1North Carolina,2008,Dole,0.12,Lose,0North Carolina,2010,Burr,1.00,Win,1North Carolina,2010,Marshall,0.00,Loss,0North Dakota,2010,Hoeven,1.00,Win,1North Dakota,2010,Potter,0.00,Loss,0North Dakota,2012,Berg,0.92,Loss,0North Dakota,2012,Heitkamp,0.08,Win,1Ohio,2010,Portman,1.00,Win,1Ohio,2010,Fisher,0.00,Loss,0Ohio,2012,Brown,0.97,Win,1Ohio,2012,Mandel,0.03,Loss,0Oklahoma,2008,Inhofe,1.00,Win,1Oklahoma,2008,Rice,0.00,Lose,0Oklahoma,2010,Coburn,1.00,Win,1Oklahoma,2010,Rogers,0.00,Loss,0Oregon,2008,Merkley,0.92,Win,1Oregon,2008,Smith,0.08,Lose,0Oregon,2010,Wyden,1.00,Win,1Oregon,2010,Huffman,0.00,Loss,0Pennsylvania,2010,Toomey,0.97,Win,1Pennsylvania,2010,Sestak,0.03,Loss,0Pennsylvania,2012,Casey,0.99,Win,1Pennsylvania,2012,Smith,0.01,Loss,0Rhode Island,2008,Reed,1.00,Win,1Rhode Island,2008,Tingle,0.00,Lose,0Rhode Island,2012,Whitehouse,1.00,Win,1Rhode Island,2012,Hinkley,0.00,Loss,0South Carolina,2008,Graham,1.00,Win,1South Carolina,2008,Conley,0.00,Lose,0South Carolina,2010,DeMint,1.00,Win,1South Carolina,2010,Greene,0.00,Loss,0South Dakota,2008,Johnson,1.00,Win,1South Dakota,2008,Dykstra,0.00,Lose,0South Dakota,2010,Thune,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2008,Alexander,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2008,Tuke,0.00,Lose,0Tennessee,2012,Corker,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2012,Clayton,0.00,Loss,0Texas,2008,Cornyn,1.00,Win,1Texas,2008,Noriega,0.00,Lose,0Texas,2012,Cruz,1.00,Win,1Texas,2012,Sadler,0.00,Loss,0Utah,2010,Lee,1.00,Win,1Utah,2010,Granato,0.00,Loss,0Utah,2012,Hatch,1.00,Win,1Utah,2012,Lowell,0.00,Loss,0Vermont,2010,Leahy,1.00,Win,1Vermont,2010,Britton,0.00,Loss,0Vermont,2012,Sanders,1.00,Win,1Vermont,2012,MacGovern,0.00,Loss,0Virginia,2008,Warner,1.00,Win,1Virginia,2008,Gilmore,0.00,Lose,0Virginia,2012,Kaine,0.88,Win,1Virginia,2012,Allen,0.12,Loss,0Washington,2010,Murray,0.80,Win,1Washington,2010,Rossi,0.20,Loss,0Washington,2012,Cantwell,0.88,Win,1Washington,2012,Baumgartner,0.12,Loss,0West Virginia,2010,Manchin,0.89,Win,1West Virginia,2010,Raese,0.11,Loss,0West Virginia,2012,Manchin,0.92,Win,1West Virginia,2012,Raese,0.08,Loss,0Wisconsin,2010,Johnson,0.97,Win,1Wisconsin,2010,Feingold,0.03,Loss,0Wisconsin,2012,Thompson,0.79,Win,1Wisconsin,2012,Baldwin,0.21,Loss,0Wyoming,2008,Enzi,1.00,Win,1Wyoming,2008,Rothfuss,0.00,Lose,0Wyoming,2012,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1Wyoming,2012,Chestnut,0.00,Loss,0Wyoming (special election),2008,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1Wyoming (special election),2008,Carter,0.00,Lose,0

forecast-methodology/senate-calibration.csv

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+state,year,candidate,forecast_prob,result,winflagAlabama,2008,Sessions,1.00,Win,1Alabama,2008,Figures,0.00,Lose,0Alabama,2010,Shelby,1.00,Win,1Alabama,2010,Barnes,0.00,Loss,0Alaska,2008,Begich,1.00,Win,1Alaska,2008,Stevens,0.00,Lose,0Alaska,2010,Miller,0.71,Lose,0Alaska,2010,Murkowski,0.21,Win,1Alaska,2010,McAdams,0.08,Loss,0Arizona,2010,Glassman,1.00,Win,1Arizona,2010,McCain,0.00,Loss,0Arizona,2012,Flake,0.96,Win,1Arizona,2012,Carmona,0.04,Loss,0Arkansas,2008,Pryor,1.00,Win,1Arkansas,2010,Boozman,1.00,Win,1Arkansas,2010,Lincoln,0.00,Loss,0California,2012,Feinstein,1.00,Win,1California,2012,Emken,0.00,Loss,0Colorado,2008,M. Udall,1.00,Win,1Colorado,2008,Schaeffer,0.00,Lose,0Colorado,2010,Buck,0.65,Loss,0Colorado,2010,Bennett,0.35,Win,1Connecticut,2010,Blumenthal,1.00,Win,1Connecticut,2010,McMahon,0.00,Loss,0Connecticut,2012,Murphy,0.96,Win,1Connecticut,2012,McMahon,0.04,Loss,0Delaware,2008,Biden,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2008,O'Connell,0.00,Lose,0Delaware,2010,Coons,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2010,O'Donnell,0.00,Loss,0Delaware,2012,Carper,1.00,Win,1Delaware,2012,Wade,0.00,Loss,0Florida,2010,Rubio,0.97,Win,1Florida,2010,Crist,0.03,Loss,0Florida,2010,Meeks,0.00,Loss,0Florida,2012,Nelson,1.00,Win,1Florida,2012,Mack,0.00,Loss,0Georgia,2008,Chambilss,0.88,Win,1Georgia,2008,Martin,0.12,Lose,0Georgia,2010,Isakson,1.00,Win,1Georgia,2010,Thurmond,0.00,Loss,0Hawaii,2010,Inouye,1.00,Win,1Hawaii,2010,Cavasso,0.00,Loss,0Hawaii,2012,Hirono,1.00,Win,1Hawaii,2012,Lingle,0.00,Loss,0Idaho,2008,Risch,1.00,Win,1Idaho,2008,LaRocco,0.00,Lose,0Idaho,2010,Crapo,1.00,Win,1Idaho,2010,Sullivan,0.00,Loss,0Illinois,2008,Durbin,1.00,Win,1Illinois,2008,Sauerberg,0.00,Lose,0Illinois,2010,Kirk,0.69,Win,1Illinois,2010,Giannoulias,0.31,Loss,0Indiana,2010,Coats,1.00,Win,1Indiana,2010,Ellsworth,0.00,Loss,0Indiana,2012,Donnelly,0.70,Win,1Indiana,2012,Lingle,0.30,Loss,0Iowa,2008,Harkin,1.00,Win,1Iowa,2008,Reed,0.00,Lose,0Iowa,2010,Grassley,1.00,Win,1Iowa,2010,Conlin,0.00,Loss,0Kansas,2008,Roberts,1.00,Win,1Kansas,2008,Slattery,0.00,Lose,0Kansas,2010,Moran,1.00,Win,1Kansas,2010,Johnston,0.00,Loss,0Kentucky,2008,McConnell,0.92,Win,1Kentucky,2008,Lunsford,0.08,Lose,0Kentucky,2010,Paul,1.00,Win,1Kentucky,2010,Conway,0.00,Loss,0Louisiana,2008,Landireu,1.00,Win,1Louisiana,2008,Kennedy,0.00,Lose,0Louisiana,2010,Vitter,1.00,Win,1Louisiana,2010,Melancon,0.00,Loss,0Maine,2008,Collins,1.00,Win,1Maine,2008,Allen,0.00,Lose,0Maine,2012,King,0.93,Win,1Maine,2012,Summers,0.06,Loss,0Maine,2012,Dill,0.01,Loss,0Maryland,2010,Murkowski,1.00,Win,1Maryland,2010,Wargotz,0.00,Loss,0Maryland,2012,Cardin,1.00,Win,1Maryland,2012,Bongino,0.00,Loss,0Massachusetts,2008,Kerry,1.00,Win,1Massachusetts,2008,Beatty,0.00,Lose,0Massachusetts,2012,Warren,0.94,Win,1Massachusetts,2012,Brown,0.06,Loss,0Michigan,2008,Levin,1.00,Win,1Michigan,2008,Hoogendyk,0.00,Lose,0Michigan,2012,Stabenow,1.00,Win,1Michigan,2012,Hoekstra,0.00,Loss,0Minnesota,2008,Franken,0.52,Win,1Minnesota,2008,Coleman,0.48,Lose,0Minnesota,2012,Klobuchar,1.00,Win,1Minnesota,2012,Bills,0.00,Loss,0Mississippi,2008,Cochran,1.00,Win,1Mississippi,2008,Fleming,0.00,Lose,0Mississippi,2012,Wicker,1.00,Win,1Mississippi,2012,Gore,0.00,Loss,0Mississippi (special election),2008,Wicker,0.94,Win,1Mississippi (special election),2008,Musgrove,0.06,Lose,0Missouri,2010,Blunt,0.99,Win,1Missouri,2010,Carnahan,0.01,Loss,0Missouri,2012,McCaskill,0.98,Win,1Missouri,2012,Akin,0.02,Loss,0Montana,2008,Baucus,1.00,Win,1Montana,2008,Kelleher,0.00,Lose,0Montana,2012,Rehberg,0.66,Win,1Montana,2012,Tester,0.34,Loss,0Nebraska,2008,Johanns,0.99,Win,1Nebraska,2008,Kleeb,0.01,Lose,0Nebraska,2012,Fischer,0.99,Win,1Nebraska,2012,Kerrey,0.01,Loss,0Nevada,2010,Angle,0.83,Loss,0Nevada,2010,Reid,0.17,Win,1Nevada,2012,Heller,0.83,Win,1Nevada,2012,Berkeley,0.17,Loss,0New Hampshire,2008,Shaheen,0.99,Win,1New Hampshire,2008,Sununu,0.01,Lose,0New Hampshire,2010,Ayotte,1.00,Win,1New Hampshire,2010,Hodes,0.00,Loss,0New Jersey,2008,Lautenberg,1.00,Win,1New Jersey,2008,Zimmer,0.00,Lose,0New Jersey,2012,Menendez,1.00,Win,1New Jersey,2012,Kyrillos,0.00,Loss,0New Mexico,2008,T. Udall,1.00,Win,1New Mexico,2008,Pearce,0.00,Lose,0New Mexico,2012,Heinrich,0.97,Win,1New Mexico,2012,Wilson,0.03,Loss,0New York,2010,Schumer,1.00,Win,1New York,2010,Townsend,0.00,Loss,0New York,2012,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1New York,2012,Long,0.00,Loss,0New York (special election),2010,Gillibrand,1.00,Win,1New York (special election),2010,DioGuardi,0.00,Loss,0North Carolina,2008,Hagan,0.88,Win,1North Carolina,2008,Dole,0.12,Lose,0North Carolina,2010,Burr,1.00,Win,1North Carolina,2010,Marshall,0.00,Loss,0North Dakota,2010,Hoeven,1.00,Win,1North Dakota,2010,Potter,0.00,Loss,0North Dakota,2012,Berg,0.92,Loss,0North Dakota,2012,Heitkamp,0.08,Win,1Ohio,2010,Portman,1.00,Win,1Ohio,2010,Fisher,0.00,Loss,0Ohio,2012,Brown,0.97,Win,1Ohio,2012,Mandel,0.03,Loss,0Oklahoma,2008,Inhofe,1.00,Win,1Oklahoma,2008,Rice,0.00,Lose,0Oklahoma,2010,Coburn,1.00,Win,1Oklahoma,2010,Rogers,0.00,Loss,0Oregon,2008,Merkley,0.92,Win,1Oregon,2008,Smith,0.08,Lose,0Oregon,2010,Wyden,1.00,Win,1Oregon,2010,Huffman,0.00,Loss,0Pennsylvania,2010,Toomey,0.97,Win,1Pennsylvania,2010,Sestak,0.03,Loss,0Pennsylvania,2012,Casey,0.99,Win,1Pennsylvania,2012,Smith,0.01,Loss,0Rhode Island,2008,Reed,1.00,Win,1Rhode Island,2008,Tingle,0.00,Lose,0Rhode Island,2012,Whitehouse,1.00,Win,1Rhode Island,2012,Hinkley,0.00,Loss,0South Carolina,2008,Graham,1.00,Win,1South Carolina,2008,Conley,0.00,Lose,0South Carolina,2010,DeMint,1.00,Win,1South Carolina,2010,Greene,0.00,Loss,0South Dakota,2008,Johnson,1.00,Win,1South Dakota,2008,Dykstra,0.00,Lose,0South Dakota,2010,Thune,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2008,Alexander,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2008,Tuke,0.00,Lose,0Tennessee,2012,Corker,1.00,Win,1Tennessee,2012,Clayton,0.00,Loss,0Texas,2008,Cornyn,1.00,Win,1Texas,2008,Noriega,0.00,Lose,0Texas,2012,Cruz,1.00,Win,1Texas,2012,Sadler,0.00,Loss,0Utah,2010,Lee,1.00,Win,1Utah,2010,Granato,0.00,Loss,0Utah,2012,Hatch,1.00,Win,1Utah,2012,Lowell,0.00,Loss,0Vermont,2010,Leahy,1.00,Win,1Vermont,2010,Britton,0.00,Loss,0Vermont,2012,Sanders,1.00,Win,1Vermont,2012,MacGovern,0.00,Loss,0Virginia,2008,Warner,1.00,Win,1Virginia,2008,Gilmore,0.00,Lose,0Virginia,2012,Kaine,0.88,Win,1Virginia,2012,Allen,0.12,Loss,0Washington,2010,Murray,0.80,Win,1Washington,2010,Rossi,0.20,Loss,0Washington,2012,Cantwell,0.88,Win,1Washington,2012,Baumgartner,0.12,Loss,0West Virginia,2010,Manchin,0.89,Win,1West Virginia,2010,Raese,0.11,Loss,0West Virginia,2012,Manchin,0.92,Win,1West Virginia,2012,Raese,0.08,Loss,0Wisconsin,2010,Johnson,0.97,Win,1Wisconsin,2010,Feingold,0.03,Loss,0Wisconsin,2012,Thompson,0.79,Win,1Wisconsin,2012,Baldwin,0.21,Loss,0Wyoming,2008,Enzi,1.00,Win,1Wyoming,2008,Rothfuss,0.00,Lose,0Wyoming,2012,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1Wyoming,2012,Chestnut,0.00,Loss,0Wyoming (special election),2008,Barrasso,1.00,Win,1Wyoming (special election),2008,Carter,0.00,Lose,0