Gather round, it’s that time of year again. The first ballot for the 2026 Grammy Awards was sent to Recording Academy voting members on Friday, giving a look at the various strategies that artists, labels and management are taking to get the best shot at Grammy gold for next year’s ceremony.
The timing, for many, couldn’t be better. Kendrick Lamar is already being forecasted as a major contender for his album “GNX” and its smash single “Luther” featuring SZA, with submissions spread across various categories. Bad Bunny is hedging his bets with “Debí Tirar Más Fotos” just days after it was announced that he’ll perform at the 2026 Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show. Lady Gaga is back with a vengeance with her nostalgic yet very fresh “Mayhem” and its singles “Abracadabra” and “Disease.” And there are many, many more artists throwing their hats in the ring for wins next year.
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There aren’t tons of curveballs this year compared to last — remember how Beyoncé submitted eight different songs to different genre categories? — but there are a few surprises we noted along the way. Before first-round voting comes to an end on Oct. 15 and nominations are announced on Nov. 7, Variety parses through the first-round ballot to answer your burning questions.
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Q: Is full Kendrick domination on the horizon?
A: Quite possibly. Lamar won last year with his runaway smash “Not Like Us” that scooped up record of the year, song of the year, best rap performance, best rap song and best music video. Now armed with a full album that dropped in the qualifying timeframe, Lamar submitted “GNX” for album of the year and best rap album. “Luther,” his hit with SZA, appears in record and song of the year, as well as best melodic rap performance and best music video. His other “GNX” tune “TV Off” is in contention for best rap performance and best rap song.
Another submission for Lamar is in the best pop duo/group performance category with his feature on SZA’s “30 for 30.” She herself has a handful of tracks in different categories: “Another Life” in best R&B performance; “Chill Baby” in best R&B song; “Crybaby” in traditional R&B performance; “BMF” in best pop solo performance; and “Drive” in music video.
Q: Who is Kendrick contending with in the rap categories?
A: Clipse, for one. The duo’s critically acclaimed reunion album “Let God Sort Em Out” dropped in July, and they submitted it for best rap album. Their song “Chains and Whips” featuring Lamar and Pharrell Williams (who submitted for producer of the year, non-classical) is in best rap performance and “The Birds Don’t Sing” appears in best rap song.
Elsewhere in the best rap album category are LL Cool J’s “The Force,” Kanye West’s “Donda 2,” Lil Wayne’s “Tha Carter VI,” Playboi Carti’s “Music,” Jackboys and Travis Scott’s “Jackboys 2,” Tyler, the Creator’s “Chromakopia” and Lil Uzi Vert’s “Eternal Atake 2,” among many others.
Q: Did the Weeknd really bury the Grammy hatchet?
A: He sure did. The Weeknd previously announced a boycott of the Grammys in 2021, claiming that there has been corruption with its nomination process. So it came as a shock earlier year when he gave a surprise performance during the Grammys in February, signaling an end to his beef with the institution. This year, he’s not holding back, either. He submitted for album of the year for “Hurry Up Tomorrow” and the single “Timeless” for record and song of the year. Elsewhere, he split the difference with submissions across various genres including “Cry for Me” in best pop solo performance and “São Paulo” with Anitta in best pop duo/group performance. “Hurry Up Tomorrow” appears in best pop vocal album, while “Baptized in Fear” is included in best R&B performance and best R&B song. He makes a bid for visual categories, too, with “Open Hearts” submitted for best music video.
Q: What about Drake and Morgan Wallen? Didn’t they also have issues with the Grammys?
A: Yes, and that seems to hold up, at least for Wallen. Drake famously withdrew his nominations in 2022 when the Weeknd was snubbed for “After Hours” the year prior. He hasn’t been entirely off the ballot, as he’s been submitted for features on other artists’ songs, and this year it looks like PartyNextDoor’s team may have submitted their collaborative album and songs on his behalf. The duo’s “$ome $exy $ong$ 4 U” appears in album of the year and progressive R&B album, while “Somebody Loves Me” is in record of the year, best rap song and melodic rap performance (the latter of which also includes “Something About You”).
As for Wallen, the country musician’s team confirmed to Variety in August that he would not be submitting himself or any songs from his chart-topping latest album “I’m the Problem” for the Grammys, and that still holds. His name does appear in the producer of the year, non-classical tally, but only as part of the credits for Charlie Handsome who lists four Wallen songs.
Q: Where did Bieber end up with the relatively diverse “Swag?”
A: Justin Bieber has made it known in the past that he was not thrilled when his album “Changes” landed in the pop categories instead of R&B in 2020. So this year, it appears he’s splitting the difference with songs from his surprise-released album “Swag.” He’s pushing “Daisies” to record and song of the year, with “Swag” in album of the year and best pop vocal album. But here’s where it bifurcates: “Daisies” is in best pop solo performance, while “Devotion” featuring Dijon is up for best pop duo/group performance. He’s also trying to contend in the R&B categories with “Yukon,” listed in best R&B performance and best R&B song. The visuals for “Yukon” were also submitted in best music video.
Q: Will the Grammys meet the moment with Bad Bunny’s latest album?
A: We can only hope so. Variety‘s Thania Garcia wrote about whether or not Grammy voters will award its highest honor — album of the year — to his politically-charged Spanish-language album “Debí Tirar Más Fotos,” noting that a nomination seems likely but a win may be a long shot. Either way, he’s teeing up for the possibility with “Debí” appearing in album of the year and best musica urbana album. He’s also vying for record of the year with “Baile Inolvidable” and “DTMF,” the latter of which was also sent in for song of the year. Elsewhere, he’s aiming for a nomination in best global music performance with “EoO.” With the Grammys taking place just before the Super Bowl in 2026, when he’ll headline the Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show, he’ll still hit major milestones no matter how the Grammy race shakes out.
Q: The past year was filled with major pop releases from Ariana Grande, Lady Gaga and Miley Cyrus. What’s going on in the pop categories?
A: A lot, actually. Ariana Grande returned earlier this year with her “Eternal Sunshine Deluxe: Brighter Days Ahead” album with six (or five and a half, depending on how you look at it) new songs. She’s banking on “Twilight Zone” to get consideration in record and song of the year, as well as best pop solo performance. As for “Defying Gravity,” her duet from “Wicked?” That’s submitted in the best pop duo/group performance category, while the “Wicked” soundtrack is in album of the year and best compilation soundtrack for visual media. (Its score appears in the respective best score soundtrack category.)
Miley Cyrus, meanwhile, submitted across the board with various songs. “Something Beautiful” is listed in album of the year as well as best pop vocal album, while its accompanying visual film was included in best music film. She’s tossing various songs to different categories — “End of the World” to record and song of the year, “More to Lose” to best pop solo performance, “Walk of Fame” featuring Brittany Howard to best pop duo/group performance and “Easy Lover” to best music video.
And then there’s Gaga. She’s clearly strategic about where she’s placing her bets with “Mayhem,” which is submitted in album of the year and best pop vocal album. “Abracadabra” is the main contender in record and song of the year, as well as best dance pop recording, best music video and best remixed recording for its Gesaffelstein take. “Disease” appears in best pop solo performance, while she’s trying for “Perfect Celebrity” in best rock performance and best rock song.
Q: And then there’s Chappell Roan. She only put out two singles this year, but where could they end up?
A: Chappell Roan had a great turn at the Grammys earlier this year after she took home best new artist. And while she’s had enduring hits since then — “Pink Pony Club” comes to mind — she dropped “The Giver” and “The Subway,” both markedly different in sound. “The Subway” is where she’s betting bigger, submitting the track in record and song of the year, as well as in best pop solo performance. But she’s branching out with “The Giver,” the country tune she debuted on “Saturday Night Live” in March. On the ballot, “The Giver” appears on both best country solo performance and best country song, giving her a shot at taking home a Grammy for a category outside of her standard pop.
