Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress — Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor Both Look for Recognition While Ariana Grande Rises

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated Oct. 2, 2025): Kate Hudson claims the top spot this week for her buzzy upcoming performance in “Song Sung Blue,” though we’re still awaiting official confirmation on her category placement. Close behind is Ariana Grande, gaining momentum for her highly anticipated turn in the musical “Wicked: For Good,” which is shaping up to be a major contender across multiple categories.

Emily Blunt remains a strong presence for her transformative role in “The Smashing Machine,” a performance that could align well with co-star Dwayne Johnson’s potential lead actor campaign. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” makes a compelling case for double nominations — an occurrence in this category roughly a third of the time — with Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor both in the mix. As the film barrels toward a likely sweep of nominations, the supporting actress race becomes the X-factor in how well the film will ultimately do with the Academy.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.