We can’t predict the future. But we can approach it more systematically. That’s where futures thinking (or strategic foresight) comes in. And it’s a critical part of good strategic design. You’ll often hear futurists say: “Foresight precedes strategy.” That’s only true if we treat strategy as a fixed plan, built in a linear way. When we instead see strategy as a testable hypothesis, futures thinking becomes more powerful. The two start to shape each other. One of the hardest parts of futures work is that it asks us to question our own values and beliefs. At its best, it creates a scaffold that helps people think the unthinkable. Here’s how futures thinking shows up in my strategic design practice. FRAMING AND SCOPING Getting alignment early matters. Futures tools can be used for different challenges, so framing the right question is essential. Clear scope and shared intent give the work its best chance of success. SCANNING Often called horizon scanning. This is where we lift our gaze and look for weak signals of change. These early signs can point to larger shifts ahead. They form the raw material for scenarios, alongside drivers of change and, to a lesser extent, trends. UNDERSTANDING IMPACT Not all signals matter equally. We explore which ones could have the biggest impact, or where uncertainty is highest. Tools like impact wheels and probability–impact matrices help build shared perspectives and increase situational awareness. SCENARIOS Scenarios turn signals into stories about alternate futures. They help us test assumptions, surface risks, and spot opportunities. Importantly, they let us rehearse decisions before we have to make them. STRATEGY FORMULATION In a linear process, strategy is the end point. In a complex world, that rarely works. Rather than a single plan, I’m interested in strategy as a system. New information about the future feeds into decisions in regular cycles, not as a one-off exercise. This is only a personal snapshot. Each stage has more depth and nuance, and many practitioners would break this into more steps. Because I also work with a complexity lens, I’m less interested in futures as a way to design an ideal future and “close the gap”. For me, the real value of futures thinking is its ability to: - Broaden what we notice - Challenge hidden assumptions - Build resilience in strategic decision-making Futures thinking isn’t a silver bullet. But its value grows when it’s used alongside other complementary practices. It expands what we can imagine, while understanding complex adaptive systems helps us respond to what’s emerging in the present. #StrategicDesign #FuturesThinking #Strategy #DesignThinking #StrategicForesight
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Stop wasting meetings! Too many meetings leave people unheard, disengaged, or overwhelmed. The best teams know that inclusion isn’t accidental—it’s designed. 🔹 Here are 6 simple but powerful practices to transform your meetings: 💡 Silent Brainstorm Before discussion begins, have participants write down their ideas privately (on sticky notes, a shared document, or an online board). This prevents groupthink, ensures introverted team members have space to contribute, and brings out more original ideas. 💡 Perspective Swap Assign participants a different stakeholder’s viewpoint (e.g., a customer, a frontline employee, or an opposing team). Challenge them to argue from that perspective, helping teams step outside their biases and build empathy-driven solutions. 💡 Pause and Reflect Instead of jumping into responses, introduce intentional pauses in the discussion. Give people 30-60 seconds of silence before answering a question or making a decision. This allows for deeper thinking, more thoughtful contributions, and space for those who need time to process. 💡 Step Up/Step Back Before starting, set an expectation: those who usually talk a lot should "step back," and quieter voices should "step up." You can track participation or invite people directly, helping create a more balanced conversation. 💡 What’s Missing? At the end of the discussion, ask: "Whose perspective have we not considered?" This simple question challenges blind spots, uncovers overlooked insights, and reinforces the importance of diverse viewpoints in decision-making. 💡 Constructive Dissent Voting Instead of just asking for agreement, give participants colored cards or digital indicators to show their stance: 🟢 Green – I fully agree 🟡 Yellow – I have concerns/questions 🔴 Red – I disagree Focus discussion on yellow and red responses, ensuring that dissenting voices are explored rather than silenced. This builds a culture where challenging ideas is seen as valuable, not risky. Which one would you like to try in your next meeting? Let me know in the comments! 🔔 Follow me to learn more about building inclusive, high-performing teams. __________________________ 🌟 Hi there! I’m Susanna, an accredited Fearless Organization Scan Practitioner with 10+ years of experience in workplace inclusion. I help companies build inclusive cultures where diverse, high-performing teams thrive with psychological safety. Let’s unlock your team’s full potential together!
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📢 The UK’s AI 2030 scenarios are out – why education must plan for multiple futures. Today, the UK Government released an important update to its Frontier AI: Capabilities and Risks paper by publishing the AI 2030 Scenarios Report (Annex C), which sets out five very different futures for how AI could reshape society by 2030. The paper states that these scenarios 'are designed to help policy makers, industry, and civil society test actions that might mitigate risks and navigate to a more favourable future'. The thinking behind the report is clear: 🔹 The future of AI is highly uncertain and fast-moving 🔹 Each path carries different risks, opportunities, and challenges 🔹 We must build resilience and adaptability across every sector, including education The tone is serious and pragmatic. Some futures offer innovation and prosperity. Others raise real concerns about disruption, misuse, and fragile governance. The five scenarios are: 1️⃣ Scenario 1: Unpredictable advanced AI Open access to powerful AI models leads to breakthroughs – but also unexpected harms. 2️⃣ Scenario 2: AI disrupts the workforce Narrow AI automates many jobs, triggering unemployment and public backlash. 3️⃣ Scenario 3: AI “wild west” Fragmented AI development fuels misuse, misinformation, and weak regulation. 4️⃣ Scenario 4: Advanced AI on a knife’s edge A highly capable general AI boosts prosperity but creates serious governance and safety risks. 5️⃣ Scenario 5: AI disappoints Progress slows; AI adoption is patchy and public interest fades. 🧠 Why has this report been produced? It marks a shift from prediction to preparation. The UK Government is encouraging all sectors (including education) to build flexibility, critical thinking, and ethical leadership into their strategies now. The future of AI is not guaranteed or smooth. Being ready for multiple futures is essential. 🎓 For education, the message is clear: ➡️ We cannot assume a smooth or predictable journey. ➡️We must prepare students (and ourselves) for multiple futures, not just one. ➡️Critical thinking, adaptability, ethical reasoning, and resilience must be central to how we teach, lead, and learn. This leaves me wondering...are we preparing students for a single future, or for the many futures AI could bring? The link to the Annex and the full report are in the comments.
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Strategic planning just got an AI upgrade – and it's a game-changer. Thrilled to share my latest #Fortune column, co-authored with some of my former colleagues at Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The reality: Even the best strategic planning suffers from human limitations – our biases, groupthink, and tendency to anchor future scenarios in past experience. When volatility rises, these constraints become dangerous blind spots. The breakthrough: Multi-agent AI platforms that simulate complex strategic scenarios with human-like behavioral patterns, but without human cognitive limitations. Think of it as having a boardroom full of AI agents – each playing regulators, competitors, customers, and other stakeholders – stress-testing your strategy 24/7 at a fraction of traditional costs. What we're seeing in practice: AI simulations identifying the same strategic moves as human workshops – plus new options humans missed entirely "Unknown unknowns" becoming "known unknowns" through expanded scenario modeling Strategic planning becoming more frequent, scalable, and accessible across organizations Leaders building confidence through pattern recognition across multiple simulation runs This isn't about replacing human strategic thinking. It's about augmenting it with tools that can explore a vastly wider range of futures, faster and cheaper than ever before. In an era where resilience drives outperformance, the organizations that upgrade their strategic planning capabilities first will have the advantage. Read the full piece: https://lnkd.in/eUNDT2WZ #AI #StrategicPlanning #BusinessStrategy #Leadership #GenAI #ScenarioPlanning #DigitalTransformation Leonid Zhukov, Ph.D, Maxwell Struever, Alan Iny Elton Parker David Zuluaga Martínez
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The Future of European Security Architecture: Navigating Dilemmas for EU Strategic Autonomy From the futures of the past to scenarios for possible futures – this study from European Parliamentary Research Service offers a deep dive into the evolution and possible trajectories of Europe’s security framework. The research starts by analyzing the post-WWII European security architecture, exploring key institutions like NATO, OSCE, and EU defence policies, alongside national perspectives that shape individual defence strategies. With the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its pivotal impact since 2022, the study outlines five potential scenarios for Europe’s security future. These scenarios explore critical dynamics, including: • The level of EU strategic autonomy and the agency of Member States. • The evolving relationship between the EU and NATO. • Outcomes of the war in Ukraine and shifts in EU-Russia relations. • Implications of US foreign and defence policy. The scenarios were tested through expert interviews with 15 security specialists, offering real-world insights and strategic foresight. The study concludes with actionable policy considerations, identifying markers for future action to enhance Europe’s security resilience. #Scenarios #EuropeanSecurity #Geopolitics #Foresight #NATO #FutureThinking
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To create good policy you need responsible foresight, enabling ethical, sustainble, accountable future design. AI now can massively enable human-centered responsible foresight, in helping address uncertainty, assess risks, and set policies for creating better futures. María Pérez Ortiz's new paper "From Prediction to Foresight: The Role of AI in Designing Responsible Futures" describes responsible foresight in policy and the role of computational foresight tools. Notable approaches to using AI in responsible foresight include: 🤝 Participatory Futures for Inclusive Planning. Engaging diverse stakeholders in foresight practices democratizes the future-planning process. AI tools streamline public participation by analyzing preferences, simulating collective decisions, and creating urban plans that reflect community values, fostering equity and resilience. 🧠 Superforecasting for Precision and Insight. Superforecasting uses disciplined reasoning and probabilistic thinking to predict uncertain events. AI-powered assistants improve human forecasting accuracy by 23%, aggregating data and refining predictions through collective intelligence and advanced analytical models. 🌐 World Simulation for Systemic Insights. Advanced modeling frameworks simulate interconnected global systems, enabling policymakers to test "what-if" scenarios. AI accelerates these simulations, providing precise forecasts and dynamic platforms to visualize the long-term consequences of policy decisions across economic, social, and environmental domains. ⚙️ Simulation Intelligence for Decision Optimization. By integrating AI with high-fidelity simulations, simulation intelligence explores complex systems to uncover optimal strategies. This tool assists in crafting effective policies for urban planning, sustainable agriculture, and climate resilience, offering actionable pathways for addressing systemic challenges. 📜 AI-Assisted Narrative Techniques. Large language models contribute to speculative futures by generating detailed "value scenarios" that integrate ethical, technological, and societal considerations. These AI-driven narratives enable policymakers to visualize desirable outcomes and evaluate potential trade-offs. 🔗 Hybrid Intelligence for Enhanced Foresight. Combining human creativity with AI’s computational strengths creates a robust foresight framework. Intuitive interfaces, explainable AI, and participatory design ensure that tools remain transparent and aligned with ethical considerations, empowering policymakers to navigate complex challenges collaboratively. ♻️ Iterative Foresight with Feedback Loops. Continuous monitoring and real-time adaptation enhance foresight processes. AI’s ability to process evolving data and generate actionable insights ensures policies remain responsive, flexible, and aligned with long-term objectives. The power of AI in assisting foresight is just beginning to come to fruition.
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Most reps don’t give problem statements the time and attention they need. It should feel like you spent *way* too much time on the problem. Especially in a complex deal, where you need lots of people to agree on: [1] The Problem’s Framing. e.g. “Are MQL’s dropping because return on ad spend is down? Search ranking is dropping? Not capturing organic traffic?” [2] The Problem’s Cost. e.g. “Is this really something we want to spend * that * amount of money on right now?” [3] The Problem’s Priority Level. e.g. “Yes, that’s frustrating, but it’s not really a ‘problem’ because it’s not blocking any type of strategic project.” Here's an example. Say we're thinking about capturing leads on a website. [1 + 2] Start with costs + framing: "Every month, at least 50,000 visitors hit our site, but only 1% convert on our site forms, vs. our target of 2%, costing us 500 conversations per month. (Roughly $2.5 million in ACV based on the current sales funnel.) ^ Not every problem is that "measurable." But the overall framework is: "Every [ frequency ], at least [ reach ] are affected by [ frame the problem ], costing us [ cost ]." [3] Next, layer in consequences to a strategic priority: "Which means we’re spending more on paid ads to hit our targets, driving up our CAC. If this isn’t addressed by the start of Q1, we’ll miss both our revenue and our CAC targets — forcing us to raise at a lower valuation in an already tough capital market." ^ Notice the key phrases here: "Which means... [ negative outcomes]. If that’s not addressed by [ timing ], then, [ it gets worse ]." If you can’t frame a high-cost, high-priority problem, your deal will stall. It’s just a matter of time. If you can write a clear problem statement everyone agrees on, you’ll win. It’s just a matter of time.
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Most project briefs fail before development starts. Because the problem statement is actually a solution in disguise. I have reviewed hundreds of programme briefs. The pattern is consistent. What gets called a problem statement is usually a stakeholder demanding their preferred solution. We need an app for potholes is not a problem statement. It is a solution masquerading as a requirement. The real issue is that citizens need to report road damage so it gets fixed faster. The solution might be an app. Or it might be better integration with existing systems. Or trained call handlers. Or all three. When you start with disguised solutions you build the wrong things for the right reasons. This carousel breaks down how to write problem statements that enable good solutions instead of mandating bad ones. Swipe to see the difference between real problems and solutions in disguise. #ProductManagement #ProblemSolving #GovTech
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🎯 Why Most Business Problems Remain Unsolved (And How to Fix That) Last week, I had the privilege of facilitating a Problem Solving & Business Acumen workshop for our teams at L'Oréal Indonesia. 💡 The Problem We All Face (But Rarely Talk About) Here's an uncomfortable truth: we're wired to jump to solutions. In business, this looks like: ✔️ Launching promotions without understanding why sales declined ✔️ Hiring more people without diagnosing process inefficiencies ✔️ Copying competitor tactics without validating if they fit our context The cost? Wasted resources, frustrated teams, and recurring problems that never truly go away. According to the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2023, analytical and critical thinking are the #1 and #2 most important skills for workers. Yet, most of us were never formally taught how to think critically or solve problems systematically. 🛠️ The Problem-Solving Process: A Step-by-Step Guide Step 1: Define the Problem (Don't Jump to Judgment!) 📝 Craft a Problem Statement with 6 components: "How can [responsible party] improve/reduce [reality] to meet [expectation] within [timeline] without [anti-goals], in order to fulfill [reason]?" Example: "How can the product team launch a new product on time in Q4 2024 without sacrificing key processes, in order to meet the sales target?" Step 2: Find Alternatives (Issue Tree + MECE) Once the problem is clear, break it down using an Issue Tree. For instance, if mascara sales dropped -14% YoY: 📦 Placement → Gondola compliance, visibility, signage 🎁 Promotion → BOGO mechanics, POS materials 💰 Price → Elasticity, perceived value 🎨 Product Claims → Content freshness, reviews 🔥 Competition → Share of voice, endcap presence ✅ Ensure hypotheses are MECE (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive)—no overlaps, no gaps. Step 3: Test Your Hypotheses Don't fall in love with your first idea. Run quick tests: 📊 For a skincare serum declining in pharmacies, we tested: ✔️ Hypothesis A: Reduced pharmacist advocacy is the issue → Micro-detailing pilot in 10 stores ✔️ Hypothesis B: Cold chain OOS drives lost sales → Warehouse SOP audit + temperature logs ✔️ Hypothesis C: Execution gaps suppress promo ROI → Endcap compliance audit Each hypothesis had clear KPIs and timelines—no guessing, just data. Step 4: Make the Decision (Impact vs. Effort Matrix) Not all solutions are equal. Prioritize: 🟩 Quick wins—do this! 🟦 Strategic bets 🟨 Fill-ins 🟥 Avoid Focus on low effort, high impact moves first. Build momentum, then tackle the big bets. 🚨 What Happens When We Skip These Steps? A mascara brand saw sales drop -14% YoY. The reaction? "Let's run a BOGO promo!" The result? Sales stayed flat. Why? Because the real issues were: ❌ Poor gondola compliance (only 68% correct facings) ❌ Weak influencer share of voice ❌ Competitor secured prime endcap space The lesson: Solutions applied to the wrong problem = wasted budget and missed targets.
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The 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 (𝐏𝐑𝐨𝐅) teaching case shows how a large healthcare consortium and a small group of manufacturers collaborated to rethink innovation in a highly regulated sector. At its core, the case demonstrates how PRoF turned the interaction between two very different communities into its main innovation engine. The large consortium represents the healthcare user community: nurses, doctors, caregivers, patients, and hospital managers who express the lived reality of care. Their contribution is experiential and value-based. Through structured “brainwave sessions,” they surface latent needs and convert them into broad keywords such as comfort, privacy, dignity, or anti-loneliness. These keywords form a shared language that avoids technical jargon and allows hundreds of users with diverse perspectives to converge around common priorities. The small consortium consists of manufacturers, architects, and designers who have the capabilities to transform these user insights into concrete room concepts. Their commercial goals are kept strictly outside the creative process, allowing trust to grow between the groups. Once the user community defines the keywords, the producer community develops prototypes, after which the large consortium returns to evaluate and refine them. This modular sequencing keeps tensions low, ensures rapid progress, and prevents commercial logic from dominating user needs. The interaction between these two communities solves a longstanding problem in healthcare innovation: suppliers often misunderstand user needs, while users lack the means to innovate. PRoF bridges this gap by letting users drive ideation and letting producers translate that insight into solutions. What emerges is a genuinely user-oriented innovation ecosystem in which neither community could succeed alone, but together they generate concepts that reshape expectations of care design. You can find the case study at HBSP: https://lnkd.in/e6nxTFM7 #UserCentricInnovation #Collaboration #OpenInnovation #CrossCommunityCollaboration #HealthcareEcosystems #CoCreation #Ideation