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[CI] RandomizedTimeSeriesIT testRateGroupBySubset failing #139732

@elasticsearchmachine

Description

@elasticsearchmachine

Build Scans:

Reproduction Line:

./gradlew ":x-pack:plugin:esql:internalClusterTest" --tests "org.elasticsearch.xpack.esql.action.RandomizedTimeSeriesIT.testRateGroupBySubset" -Dtests.seed=5D7DC271E8E2692B -Dtests.locale=xnr-Deva-IN -Dtests.timezone=US/Pacific -Druntime.java=25

Applicable branches:
main

Reproduces locally?:
N/A

Failure History:
See dashboard

Failure Message:

java.lang.AssertionError: Failed. Agg: INCREASE | Failed windows: 1 windows(0.2976190476190476%):
ROWS: 336|Failed for row:
[1, 1247.920146331721, 1247.920146331721, 1247.920146331721, 1247.920146331721, 1247.920146331721, 2025-07-31T09:35:00.000Z, null, 863, 205.110.93.222, Bk, IWxQLNKIWAIRFsptN, null, null, edBF, 407, c01b:9629::a950:9256:0:0, iDMt, 72a9:1b5d::e7a2:3325:0:0, zBBgBqJdKqE, null, null, null, 801, jhjHTOhQVUaXcsUVSrR, null, null, 499, null, 541]
Wanted: RateStats[count=1, max=RateRange[lower=631.5, upper=1194.8510089012038], avg=RateRange[lower=631.5, upper=1194.8510089012038], min=RateRange[lower=631.5, upper=1194.8510089012038], sum=RateRange[lower=631.5, upper=1194.8510089012038]]
Exception: 
Expected: (a value less than or equal to <1194.8510089012038> and not a value less than <631.5>)
     but: a value less than or equal to <1194.8510089012038> <1247.920146331721> was greater than <1194.8510089012038>
Row times and values:
	TS:2025-07-31T09:39:52.780Z=440.0, 2025-0
[truncated]

Issue Reasons:

  • [main] 57 failures in test testRateGroupBySubset (8.4% fail rate in 680 executions)
  • [main] 16 failures in step part3 (11.0% fail rate in 146 executions)
  • [main] 35 failures in step part-3 (8.6% fail rate in 407 executions)
  • [main] 2 failures in step part-3-fips (5.1% fail rate in 39 executions)
  • [main] 16 failures in pipeline elasticsearch-intake (11.0% fail rate in 146 executions)
  • [main] 35 failures in pipeline elasticsearch-pull-request (8.8% fail rate in 397 executions)

Note:
This issue was created using new test triage automation. Please report issues or feedback to es-delivery.

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