Meteorologists predicted this El Niño weather system that is likely to result in some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded. For millions of workers in the global south, the consequences could be severe. And what’s bad for these workers is invariably bad for the multinational companies that rely on their labor.
Recently, the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights published a report with an urgent message for global business: in labor-intensive industries, worker wellbeing and business resilience are increasingly intertwined. When workers become sick, exhausted, or unable to work safely, productivity falls, disruptions increase, and supply chains become more vulnerable. The report found that extreme heat is already disrupting production—and companies need to act now.
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Record-breaking heatwaves have already swept across parts of the world this year. In the last few months, temperatures across Western Europe soared well into the 90s and in some places topped 100 degrees. Across South and Southeast Asia, temperatures approached 113–122 degrees Fahrenheit, contributing to heat-related deaths. Products consumed every day in Europe and North America depend heavily on workers in climate-vulnerable regions.
Yet scientists warn that temperatures could get even hotter.
The United Kingdom Met Office estimates there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. One reason is the growing likelihood of an El Niño event later this year. United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a 96 percent chance of an El Niño forming this winter, with a 35 percent chance of a “super” El Niño.
El Niño occurs when changes in Pacific Ocean wind conditions release heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere, altering global weather patterns and sparking floods, droughts, and heat waves. Because there is typically a lag between the peak of an El Niño and its full effect on global temperatures, scientists warn that 2027 could become a record-breaking year for heat.
The last major El Niño triggered heatwaves across South and Southeast Asia and contributed to 2024 becoming the hottest year on record. Governments in climate-vulnerable countries are already preparing: India, which has historically experienced severe heat and drought during El Niño years, is forecast to face a weaker-than-normal monsoon and has already held preparatory meetings for the year ahead. But governments cannot manage these risks alone—businesses whose supply chains depend on these workers have both influence and responsibility.
That leaves low-wage workers—often the most exposed and least equipped to protect themselves from rising temperatures—even more vulnerable to heat-related illness, lost income, and rising household expenses. The International Labor Organization estimates that 70 percent of the global workforce—around 2.4 billion workers—is exposed to excessive heat each year, contributing to approximately 23 million non-fatal injuries and nearly 19,000 deaths annually.
The CBHR report’s original research illustrates how these human consequences are already playing out in global supply chains. Workers and managers in Indian apparel factories reported rising absenteeism and declining productivity linked to heat-related illness and fatigue, partial factory shutdowns during periods of grid instability, and production delays caused by worker exhaustion, power disruptions, and quality-control problems—disruptions that travel directly up the supply chain.
Extreme heat is no longer just an environmental issue. It is a worker protection issue and, increasingly, a supply chain resilience issue. For years, corporate climate efforts have focused primarily on reducing emissions. That remains essential. But as temperatures continue to rise, helping workers and businesses adapt to the impacts of a hotter world is becoming just as important. Yet many clothing brands are flying blind: while 94 percent of surveyed apparel brands acknowledged that extreme heat poses a moderate or significant risk to production, only 35 percent ask suppliers to measure temperatures inside production areas, and none collect that data continuously.
Multinational companies have both the influence and the opportunity to act—starting with support for supplier adaptation to rising temperatures. Within the garment industry, many measures are practical and achievable, including temperature and humidity monitoring, improved access to hydration, adjusted work-rest schedules, supplier engagement, and contingency planning for extreme heat.
Longer-term investments in ventilation, insulation, and cooling technologies remain important. But businesses do not need to wait for large-scale infrastructure upgrades before taking action. Many measures can be implemented immediately, helping to protect worker wellbeing and operational resilience.
This El Niño is a reminder that climate risks are no longer distant. We have advance warning. Companies that act now can protect millions of workers and the supply chains on which they depend. In a hotter world, protecting workers and protecting business resilience are increasingly one and the same.
Lucy Siers is a senior research scientist on global labor at NYU Stern’s Center for Business and Human Rights, with a focus on protections for migrant workers. Previously, Lucy worked as a research consultant at the U.S.-based non-profit Verité that works to illuminate and remedy labor rights violations in supply chains. Lucy holds an L.L.B. degree and an MSc in Migration Studies from the University of Bristol, UK, where she specialized in seasonal labor migration to the UK following Brexit and undertook research for their Human Rights Law Clinic.
