Chinmay Malaviya

Today we launched Seraphim’s 2025 Ecosystem Map. The headline: space is maturing with discipline. Capital is spreading to a broader set of high-quality companies; business models are stronger; dual-use demand is anchoring revenues; and public markets are starting to reopen. What’s new this year: • A dedicated Software category • In-space services shifting from demos to repeatable operations • A healthier balance of Build & Launch through to Analyse & Product At Seraphim our focus is simple: back category leaders, connect defence and commercial demand, and keep standards high so this sector compounds for the long term. Credit to the founders and operators setting the pace featured in the map. If you want to learn more about this year's Map, Seraphim's Lucas Bishop discussed it with Via Satellite: https://lnkd.in/eyni5DRH #SpaceTech #VentureCapital #SpaceEconomy #Innovation #SeraphimSpace #DualUse

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In the AI era, consumer startups are on a new trajectory. The best B2C companies are exceeding 100% net revenue retention - which was previously only possible in B2B. At Andreessen Horowitz, we call this "The Great Expansion." In the pre-AI era, B2C companies almost never exceeded 100% NRR. Why? Most users were monetized via a flat monthly subscription or ads. Usage-based pricing was rare. So user retention = revenue retention. And since some users churned, NRR was less than 100% (and often <50%!) Now, consumer companies are making more money from a user (and even from a cohort, accounting for churn!) over time. How do they do it? There are two major ways, which aren't mutually exclusive - many companies are doing both: 1️⃣ Usage-based pricing. Before AI, most consumer apps had negligible marginal cost - and couldn't really charge more for heavy usage of the product. With inference, that's changed. Companies now have pricing tiers based on usage + charge more for credits. Power users will spend more and become "whales" - in some cases spending 10x+ more over time (ex. ChatGPT Plus -> Pro). Other examples - SuperGrok, Google AI Ultra, Krea Max. 2️⃣ Enterprise / teams expansion. Many employees want to be the "AI hero" of their company, or they're tasked with finding ways to automate processes / have an AI strategy. They'll test out consumer tools and then bring them into the workplace, creating massive expansion opportunities. One user can yield a 100+ seat contract. You can charge 1.5x+ more / user for basic (but crucial) security and permissions functionality - Replit, Cursor, ChatGPT, and others have done this successfully! AI companies also go into enterprise earlier. Canva waited 7 years to debut Teams - this won't fly in 2025! If you don't grab enterprise $, a competitor will. Ex. ElevenLabs already sees substantial rev from enterprise, with features like HIPAA compliance, managed dubbing, etc. For more examples and our full thesis, check out our post: https://lnkd.in/gbWgsDCJ

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I’m thrilled to announce defy.vc’s investment in Birches Health as part of their $20M combined Seed and Series A funding round, alongside incredible partners like AlleyCorp, General Catalyst, Will Ventures, and others. As someone deeply passionate about backing companies that tackle important problems for our society, I couldn’t be more excited about what Birches is building—a national virtual clinic dedicated to treating gambling addiction and related behavioral disorders like gaming, sex, porn, and internet addictions. What excites me most is Birches’ innovative health assurance model: proactive, accessible, and affordable care that’s evidence-based and delivered right at home. With the explosion of legal sports betting—think nearly $1.5 billion wagered on this year’s Super Bowl alone—we’re staring down a looming public health emergency. Traditional options like hotlines or generic therapy fall short for this high-acuity issue, but Birches changes that by offering specialized therapy from trained clinicians, multimodal treatment, and peer support, all covered by major insurers like United Healthcare, Cigna, Aetna, and Blue Cross Blue Shield. It’s available in all 50 states, breaking down geographical and financial barriers that have left so many without help. The impact is already profound: 96% of patients report an improved quality of life, and 94% give Birches a 5/5 rating. By partnering with state governments, payors, and policymakers, Birches is pushing gambling addiction into the spotlight of behavioral health conversations, where it’s been neglected for too long—often leading to shame, worsened outcomes, and higher suicidality risks. This funding will supercharge their growth: expanding the provider network, boosting clinical excellence, scaling infrastructure, and deepening insurance and state partnerships to meet surging demand. Very excited to partner with Elliott Rapaport and the entire Birches team! See more about our POV in the blog post linked in the comments. #GamblingAddiction #BehavioralHealth #HealthTech #VentureCapital #Innovation

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The best founders are great recruiters. Your early hires shape everything: how fast you move, the culture you create, the direction you take. Essentially, get the right people on board and they multiply every effort. So! If you’re starting a company, recruiting is your most important job. You need to run fast and thoughtful processes, build pipelines before you need them, and make sure expectations are aligned on both sides. I’ve had the chance to help companies like Anduril Industries and Base Power Company build their early teams and pulled together some (read: many, many) lessons and frameworks on how to do it well: https://lnkd.in/gwx52HaU

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Peter Thiel says horizontal growth = globalization, vertical growth = innovation. In our newest interview of #NoPriorsPod, US Under Secretary of State-Designate for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Jacob Helberg says the 2000s were mostly horizontal growth for the USA, but vertical growth has accelerated for the past 7 years, and AI could erode China's cheap labor edge. Full episode linked in the comment.

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LION EQUITY PARTNERS COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF CUSTOM TUBE PRODUCTS, INC. “Custom Tube has established a strong reputation for delivering high-quality solutions to its customers,” said Lion Equity Co-Founder and Partner Jim Levitas. “Combining CTP with ETI creates a highly complementary partnership that broadens capabilities, expands market reach, and positions the business for long-term growth. We’re excited to support both teams as they build on their track records of excellence together.” Link to full press release: https://lnkd.in/gkcr73Bk

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Excited for the next post in our "Navigating Diligence" Series. Last year, we create a post around understanding market sizing from a VC/fundraising perspective and received positive feedback from founders in and out of our network. We decided to update this and include some templates to be helpful to founders. Link in comments. Market Sizing in 30 Minutes We take the outputs from the prior Exercise 2: Customer Segmentation and plug them into a simple, bottoms-up “mad-libs” for TAM: "To get to $100M in gross profit per year, we need X customers paying us $Y per year, where X represents this K% of the market of prospective customers. There are a total of (X / K%) such customers in the US. The primary characteristics when doing a segmentation of customers are A, B, C. Our paying customers have the following characteristics A, B, C." We also cover - Why market sizing matters to investors - Why all revenue is not equal (gross profit > topline) - Common mistakes and quick fixes Bonus: We’re sharing our simple Market Sizing Template used by hundreds of startups from pre-seed to pre-IPO. Read the full post here 👇

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How do you build a fund that makes 40 new investments a year—and still stays high-conviction? I sat down with Charles Hudson, Founder and Managing Partner at Precursor Ventures, who has quietly built one of the most prolific early-stage portfolios in VC—nearly 500 investments and counting, including The Athletic, Juniper Square, and Carrot Fertility. We discuss what he’s learned from 600+ investments, how to evaluate “founder taste,” why central casting is surging again, and the surprisingly strong performance of his consumer bets. Charles also breaks down their unconventional reserve strategy, why they rarely take board seats, and how they’re preparing for a changing venture landscape. The link to Episode 488 is in the comment section below.

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