Energy Industry Trends

We were wrong. 5 years ago; the narrative was that natural gas power plants were a dying breed. Today, the case for nat gas power is stronger than ever. 𝗦𝗼 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱? In 2019, the narrative around natural gas in the US power sector seemed clear. 𝗪𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁. 𝗔 𝗴𝗹𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. According to S&P Global, between 2008 and 2019, the US added 120 GW of gas-fired capacity. At least 200 new gas plants were planned or in development, totaling nearly 70 GW of additional capacity. 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘅 𝗿𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 $𝟲𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 $𝟭𝟭𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟴. 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟵 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘀 $𝟭𝟮𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻. Several factors were driving this overbuilding: - Historically low natural gas prices due to the shale gas revolution - Utility business models that rewarded new infrastructure - Outdated demand forecasts - High reserve margins - Slower-than-expected growth in renewable energy 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿. 𝗙𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰: The narrative has shifted dramatically. According to Sierra Club research: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝘅 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲, 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬. If this trend continues, 2024 will mark the most new gas-power generation announced since at least 2017. 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 BloombergNEF 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲? - Surge in demand from AI data centers - Increased power needs for manufacturing facilities - Growing adoption of electric vehicles ERCOT 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿. Looking at all planned additions, the US Southeast is the leader. This shift is causing utilities to revise their decarbonization goals: PacifiCorp, 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗱𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗴𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘁𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 They cancelled 7 GW of renewable energy projects over the next two decades. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 U.S. Energy Information Administration 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟰𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗨𝗦 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝘆 𝗺𝗶𝗱𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘆, 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗼𝗻𝗲-𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱. Natural gas is essential for grid reliability and deploying more renewables to backstop the grid. #energytransition #datacenter #naturalgas #cleantech #ai Arcus Power Corp

The US battery mandate has moved. Not ended—repositioned. The new Trump budget cuts EV tax credits and shrinks DOE funding for climate tech—but it doesn’t walk away from batteries. Instead, it reroutes billions through the DOD to fuel a new wave of innovation in:  • AI data center infrastructure  • Defense platforms and drones  • U.S.-based mineral supply and manufacturing This isn’t about abandoning energy storage. It’s about changing what batteries are for. EVs drove lithium-ion scale. However, that model reached its structural limits—namely, cost, safety, and geopolitical fragility. What comes next will look very different:  • Power > range  • Safety > energy density  • Domestic resilience > global arbitrage And with that shift comes new lanes for new chemistries. For the first time in decades, batteries that don’t serve a car—but serve a grid, a robot, or a mission—are being pulled into relevance. To founders and investors: This pivot isn’t temporary—it’s tectonic. Follow the policy. Follow the procurement. That’s where the next battery platforms will be built. This is the moment to build the new 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺. Group1 was architected for exactly this moment.

Qatar’s energy minister unveiled last week plans to boost liquified natural gas (LNG) capacity another 13% on top of its previously announced projects, together lifting the nation’s output from 77 million metric tons per year today to 142 million tons by 2030. What does that mean, exactly, for a reader not closely following the LNG market? 1. That puts the peninsula with fewer residents than the state of Mississippi on track to produce the equivalent of about 7.25 million barrels of oil per day. Most of that will be exported, essentially matching the oil shipments from the region’s reigning energy giant, Saudi Arabia. 2. The small Gulf nation is now on track to control about a quarter of all liquefied natural gas by the end of the decade. 3. Once it’s all online, the additional supply will increase annual revenue by about $31 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations. That's money it can then turn around and invest via its sovereign wealth fund into global industries like health care or tech. In short, by investing heavily in fossil fuels today and then using that revenue to fund other ventures, it will build the investments it needs to protect itself from a world that someday might not need fossil fuels at all. No doubt about it: Qatar is playing the long game. Read more from Stephen Stapczynski, Verity Ratcliffe, Anthony DiPaola, Ruth Liao, Anna Shiryaevskaya and Rakteem Katakey here: https://lnkd.in/ebZPqmQ9 #lng #energy #gas #naturalgas #gdp #economics #trading #supplychain #fossilfuels #middleast #mena #qatar

Demand for green talent is outstripping supply. According to new data from LinkedIn's Economic Graph, green demand surged by 11.6% last year, while supply only grew by 5.6%. To put that another way, by 2030, nearly one in five jobs requiring green skills could go unfilled. By 2050, that figure could balloon to one in two jobs. This means it’s a great time to go green — worldwide, the hiring rate for job seekers with green skills is 54.6% higher than the rest of the workforce. In the U.S., that figure jumps to 80.3% higher. Some of the fastest-growing skills for these workers include building performance, responsible sourcing and environmental due diligence. Sectors welcoming workers with such skills at higher rates include the utilities industry, driven by the rapid expansion in renewable energy, along with the construction and manufacturing industries. What’s your best advice for workers looking to break into these roles? Weigh in below. And see more LinkedIn data on this topic here: https://lnkd.in/d8NSZXqA ✍: Taylor Borden 📊: Akash Kaura, LinkedIn's Economic Graph

“In the United States, battery manufacturing capacity has doubled since 2022 following the implementation of tax credits for producers, reaching over 200 GWh in 2024. Nearly 700 GWh of additional manufacturing capacity is under construction. Around 40% of existing capacity is operated or developed by established battery makers in close collaboration with automakers. Developing domestic capacity for manufacturing battery components has progressed more slowly, so most anode and cathode demand is still satisfied by imports. Battery demand for stationary applications has increased by over 60% annually for the past two years, opening up a demand stream beyond EVs, albeit smaller in volume.”

bp expects to lay off nearly 5,000 employees. It's one of the darker sides to the notion of "capital discipline". I've written a lot about how uncertainty is increasing across global oil markets. There's an open question about how quickly global oil demand will grow from here, when it will eventually plateau, and how quickly it'll fall after it plateaus. Even OPEC expects global oil demand to grow at a 0.6% compound annual growth rate from now through 2050, which is around a quarter of the rate the global economy is expected to grow over the same period. Said differently, the world's economy is increasingly becoming less oil intensive, even as oil demand continues to increase. This reality poses an interesting challenge for the management teams of massive oil & gas producers. How do you keep investors interested in a business whose market won't keep pace with that of the global economy? It's one of the reasons we're seeing some international oil & gas companies lean heavily into low carbon investments, while others increase dividends and ramp up buyback activity. bp is really struggling, with its stock price down 7% over the past year, while Shell's is up 8%, Chevron's is up 11%, and ExxonMobil's is up 14%. Having a 15-plus point gap to your most recognizable peers will draw some negative attention. That's the backdrop for Thursday's announcement that bp will lay off nearly 5,000 employees, plus another 3,000 contractors. "Capital discipline" is one of the buzzwords we're hearing in this new phase of oil markets. If oil demand isn't growing aggressively, you want to be extra careful about how you invest capital. It's even harder to find value-accretive investments today than it has been in the past, as analysts and management teams grapple with long-term, structural constraints working against oil demand. One element of capital discipline is fewer growth investments, whether it's exploring for new fields or ramping up production in existing fields. Another element of capital discipline, unfortunately for employees, is capital retention, which means erring on the side of being too lean rather than too heavy, headcount-wise. Management teams would much rather explain why they're leaving potential growth opportunities on the table because they're returning capital to shareholders, as opposed to why returns on capital are falling and cash generation is shrinking because they're too heavy on headcount. And thus, we see bp slashing its headcount. A nasty day for the employees affected, but a continuing reminder that the reality around oilfield markets continues to change. #energy #oilandgas #ksg https://lnkd.in/ggnBx3q3

The recent World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025 highlights the trends reshaping the global labor market. WEF estimates a net increase of 78 million jobs with employers expecting 40% of the skills required to shift over the next 5 years. The report notes “helping workers achieve the right mix of technical and human skills will be vital as the future of work continues to evolve.” These trends and forecasts align with a recent podcast conversation I had with John Nixon. It doesn’t get more energetic than a workforce development convo with John who leads Siemens Digital Industries Software's Energy & Chemicals Industry. John: “What excites me is workforce development is so incredibly important to us in Energy & Chemicals.” He emphasized the industry’s skill challenges along with labor shortages - noting 10% of engineer demand will be from data centers by 2035. We doubled down on intersections. We discussed the industry skills intersection as digital twins go into the field. We looked at the timely intersection of supply and demand changes in engineering education. John emphasized the “tremendous skills gap” that requires a new level of skills development due to digital transformation, as well as talent turnover in academia and industry. The challenges are global. That’s why you see whole regions like the European Union recommending microcredentials to promote a culture of lifelong learning. The United Arab Emirates adopted a policy to leverage microcredentials to strengthen opportunities for learning and employability. It’s clear a new level of digital fluency is required to meet the transformation in the energy industry. Credentials play a key role in providing recognition for knowledge and skills and connecting talent with employers. They address the need for more flexible and accessible learning pathways. Now more than ever, academia and industry must collaborate on creative, cost-effective digital solutions. sie.ag/76vR91 #workforcedevelopment

The FT writes, geothermal energy is quietly gaining popularity in the US as new technological advancements may be able to scale this carbon-free, 24/7 power source. Traditional geothermal plants, which generate electricity by moving fluid along hot rocks, must be located near natural reservoirs of hot water that exist below the earth’s surface. But advances in the technology can utilize techniques from the oil and gas industry to drill wells that can generate energy from man-made reservoirs that can be located anywhere. “The same skillsets that are used for oil and gas drilling are what allows for next generation geothermal to move forward,” said Drew Nelson, VP of programs, policy and strategy at Project InnerSpace, a non-profit focused on advancing the geothermal industry. Next-generation geothermal has already attracted support from big tech companies, including Google, which are seeking clean energy for their data centers. It also has the support of the White House. Energy secretary Chris Wright named the power source as an area of interest during his confirmation hearing. Google has already partnered with Fervo Energy to supply power to its data centers in Nevada. Another geothermal start-up, Sage Geosystems Inc., has agreed to supply Meta with 150MW of capacity to power its data centers starting in 2027. “The need for power from the AI sector has only increased the interest overall in geothermal,” said Cindy Taff, CEO of Sage Geosystems, adding that there had been “significant interest” from other hyperscalers in the energy source. The IEA reported geothermal meets less than 1% of global energy demand but with continued project cost reductions and technological improvements, it estimates that it could meet up to 15% of global electricity demand growth to 2050. Geothermal also fits with the Trump admin’s mantra of “drill baby drill,” as it can leverage fracking and drilling skills from the oil and gas industry. Wood Mackenzie estimates that if geothermal is to grow from 50GW to over 250GW by 2050, the industry needs to drill 35,000 new wells. Experts warn that the technology still has a long way to go. The Department of Energy said in a report last year that it expects “commercial lift-off” to be attainable as early as 2030 but only if it “can achieve a set of market conditions around cost, demonstrations, value and community engagement”. It is very expensive to drill. Gregory Keoleian, director at the University of Michigan School for Environment and Sustainability, said that in certain areas of the US, hot rock that isn’t close to the surface will force producers to drill deeper—an increasingly expensive endeavor. Still, as the technology becomes more advanced it is likely to drive down costs. Last year, Fervo Energy announced it had shown a 70% year-over-year reduction in drilling times for its Cape Station project that has translated into costs falling from $9.4mn to $4.8mn per well. ♻️⚡👀 #geothermal #energy #renewables

FRESH DATA, right here. Solar and storage continue to dominate America’s energy economy.   We just got the latest numbers and they show that solar and storage have added more capacity to the grid than any other technology, while adding domestic manufacturing at a historic pace.   Today, the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie released our latest Solar Market Insight report covering the first quarter of 2025.   The report finds that: - solar added 10.8 GW of new electricity generating capacity in Q1. - solar and storage account for 82% of all new generating capacity added to the grid. - America added 8.6 GW of new solar module manufacturing capacity, the third-largest quarter for new manufacturing capacity on record.  - We added 8 new or expanded factories in Texas, Ohio, and Arizona. - American solar cell production capacity doubled, with the opening of a new factory in South Carolina.   However, this success is at risk.   If Congress fails to fix the legislation passed by the House – which would render the energy tax incentives unusable – lawmakers will trigger a dangerous energy shortage that will raise our electric bills and stop America’s manufacturing boom in its tracks.   Solar has become a transformational American success story and we cannot let Congress throw it away.   Read SEIA’s full statement here: https://lnkd.in/epbctFib

The headline that caught my eye this week was "A New Reckoning for Nuclear Energy." Here's my take: The nuclear energy narrative is experiencing a remarkable shift. For the first time since 1990, we've seen nuclear capacity additions in back-to-back years, and the Department of Energy is targeting a 60-fold increase in nuclear power over the next quarter century. But what's truly fascinating is how we got here. The story illustrates how quickly conventional wisdom can change when confronted with new realities. A decade ago, nuclear power was still largely viewed through the lens of past accidents and Cold War associations. Today, it's increasingly seen as a vital tool for decarbonization, with even Democrats endorsing it for the first time since 1972 and tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft making substantial investments. What's driving this shift? Two converging forces: the urgent need for carbon-free baseload power to address climate change, and the soaring power demands of AI and data centers. The latter is particularly intriguing — tech companies are now willing to pay above-market rates for reliable, clean nuclear power, creating a precedent we haven't seen before. I'd add a note of caution: the industry still needs to prove it can deliver on time and on budget. The climate crisis demands urgent action, but rushing nuclear deployment could risk repeating past mistakes. The door is open for nuclear power — the question is whether the industry can walk through it.