Tim Arrowsmith, a California goat farmer, just hedged $500K on whether Sacramento passes wage relief. If the bill dies, his labor costs quadruple.
Full story here: cnbc.com/2026/08/13/how…
Yesterday Kalshi priced the Wisconsin Democratic Primary at 95–5. The 5% candidate won.
Before the "prediction markets got it wrong" headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn't mean it won't happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets
During the FIFA World Cup, Kalshi became one of the world's most visible brands.
• 29B+ impressions - more than every major brand
• Best World Cup Commercial (Adweek/EDO)
• 5.8M+ downloads
• $27B traded
We did it with a team of 15. There's no secret sauce🧵
