Dow Jones| Nasdaq | S&P 500 | US Stock Market Today | Highlights: Nasdaq plunges 2% as tech earnings spark AI spending worries

US natural gas futures settled at $2.916 per mmBtu on Thursday, holding near a one-week high. The market was supported by a 6% surge in crude oil driven by Middle East supply fears, alongside a smaller-than-expected weekly storage injection of 32 billion cubic feet. Persistently hot weather forecasts through early August are expected to boost air conditioning use, raising Lower 48 demand outlooks. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bertha presents minimal threat to major inland production hubs, keeping Gulf Coast LNG flows largely unaffected so far.

The Republican-led US House passed a resolution (214-208) requiring President Donald Trump to halt unauthorized military action against Iran, but the Senate blocked a similar measure shortly after in a 49-47 vote. Supported by four Republicans, the largely symbolic House vote reflects bipartisan unease as the conflict drags on, driving up fuel costs and casualties ahead of midterm elections. Meanwhile, Trump vowed further retaliation following Houthi attacks on oil tankers, as the military continues airstrikes against Iran despite growing congressional frustration over constitutional war authority.

The EU fined Google €890 million ($1 billion) under the Digital Markets Act for favoring its own search services and restricting developers on Google Play. Despite criticizing the ruling, Google is testing compliance changes through a constructive dialogue, making further daily penalties unlikely. Total EU antitrust fines against the tech giant have now reached €10.38 billion.

US Treasury yields surged to year-to-date highs as rising tensions in the Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel. The energy spike reignited inflation fears, leading traders to bet on potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Two-year yields jumped to 4.37%, while benchmark 10-year yields reached a peak of 4.7%.

Market expectations were further heightened by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's shift away from providing explicit forward guidance. Traders now price in a 35% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming July meeting, up from 10% last week. Additionally, a steady labor market with dropping jobless claims gives policymakers room to prioritize inflation control.

Investor hesitation was evident during a $21 billion auction of 10-year Inflation-Protected Securities, which saw its highest awarded yield since 2008. With persistent energy costs and steady economic growth, analysts suggest the 10-year yield could settle into a higher long-term range of 4.5% to 5.0%.

Nuvve Holding Corp will be delisted from Nasdaq for failing to comply with listing rules, with shares set to trade on the OTC Pink market from July 24 under the ticker NVVE.

Blackstone is working to address growing societal and environmental concerns tied to artificial intelligence, as opposition to data center construction rises across the US. CEO Stephen Schwarzman acknowledged increasing public resistance despite strong investment in AI infrastructure.

The firm is collaborating with portfolio companies to mitigate impacts through initiatives such as job creation, workforce training, water-free cooling systems, and expanded power generation. These efforts aim to balance rapid AI expansion with community and environmental considerations.

Schwarzman noted that while AI could drive long-term economic gains, it also creates uncertainty and public anxiety. The push to expand AI infrastructure comes as policymakers weigh competitiveness with China against concerns over energy costs and local opposition.

Kalshi Inc. is considering launching perpetual futures tied to copper, expanding its commodities trading push beyond precious metals. The move comes as rising demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure and computing growth strengthens the outlook for copper consumption.

The company is exploring copper and palladium contracts after seeking regulatory approval to expand perpetual futures into gold, silver, and platinum. These contracts allow investors to trade without expiration dates and typically involve leveraged positions.

Kalshi’s potential copper futures would enter a competitive market dominated by established exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange and Comex. While perpetual futures offer continuous market exposure, they also carry higher risks due to leverage and amplified price movements.

A Manhattan office tower at 10 Bryant Park, formerly the HSBC Tower, has been put up for sale with an asking price exceeding $800 million. The building is owned by Property & Building Corp. and is being marketed by Newmark Group.

The 30-story property, located near Bryant Park and Grand Central Terminal, has undergone significant renovations and is currently leased to tenants including Amazon, Baker McKenzie, and Life Time. It spans roughly 865,000 square feet.

The sale highlights continued demand for high-quality, well-located office assets in Midtown Manhattan, particularly those close to major transit hubs. The area remains attractive to large firms seeking premium office space to draw employees back to workplaces.

lackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is considering a securitization deal that would bundle stakes in its private capital funds into bonds. The proposed collateralized fund obligation could exceed $1 billion and is currently in early-stage discussions with investors.

Such deals package fund stakes into tranches of debt, allowing institutional investors like insurers to buy rated securities with varying risk levels. The market for these instruments is expanding तेजी, with issuance expected to reach around $30 billion this year.

The move reflects a broader trend among asset managers seeking liquidity and enhanced returns amid slower private market exits. Several firms have pursued similar structures as demand grows for innovative financing solutions in private capital markets.

The new owners of the Seattle Seahawks, led by Vinod and Neeru Khosla, are in talks with potential investors including Mark Stevens and private equity firms such as Sixth Street, Carlyle, and Dynasty Equity. Discussions are ongoing and may not result in a final agreement.

The outreach reflects the NFL’s growing openness to private equity participation, allowing approved firms to take minority stakes in teams. These investments provide liquidity for owners and help fund large projects such as stadium developments.

The Khosla group recently agreed to acquire the Seahawks for a record $9.6 billion, one of the largest sports franchise deals ever. The transaction is pending approval from NFL owners, with Neeru Khosla expected to serve as controlling owner.

• Pantheon Electric is pursuing acquisitions to expand its copper products business as demand surges from artificial intelligence data centers and power grid upgrades. The company aims to become a comprehensive supplier of electrical infrastructure components.
• Backed by private equity, Pantheon is exploring deals involving copper conductors, transformer components, and cooling systems. Strong demand, rather than tariffs, has been the primary driver of growth as investment in AI infrastructure accelerates.
• The company expects revenue to approach $2 billion this year, up about 35%, and has shifted sourcing toward U.S. producers to strengthen supply chain resilience. Pantheon also mitigates price volatility by passing on costs and using hedging strategies.

• IBM lowered its full-year sales outlook after weaker demand for its mainframe business pressured growth. The company now expects revenue to rise 4% to 5%, compared with its earlier forecast of more than 5%, while software sales growth expectations were also reduced.
• Mainframe revenue dropped 42% in the second quarter, raising concerns among investors about demand trends. IBM executives said the decline reflected a temporary delay in customer spending rather than a long-term shift away from mainframe products.
• Despite the weaker outlook, IBM highlighted strong performance across its software business and plans to accelerate cost-cutting measures. The company maintained its free cash flow target and said it remains confident in its broader strategy focused on hybrid cloud and AI-driven software growth.

US 10-year TIPS yields rose to 2.429% after an auction, marking their highest level since April 2025 and signalling firm real rate pressures.

• Microsoft is replacing OpenAI’s image-generation models with its own artificial intelligence technology across products including PowerPoint and Bing. The company said its in-house Microsoft AI (MAI) models offer better speed, quality, and cost efficiency.
• Microsoft’s AI chief Mustafa Suleyman said MAI models are about 85% cheaper to run in PowerPoint compared with OpenAI models. The shift aims to reduce AI deployment costs while improving user experiences across Microsoft’s software ecosystem.
• The company is expanding the use of its own AI models across products, with MAI models already deployed in more than half of Microsoft’s offerings. Microsoft is also testing the technology across its portfolio while continuing to compete with leading AI developers.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to announce new tariff measures as the deadline approaches for President Donald Trump’s temporary 10% global import tariff. The White House said details would be released later Thursday.

The temporary levy was introduced after the Supreme Court blocked several earlier Trump tariffs and is set to expire after 150 days. The administration has since prepared new duties targeting around 60 economies over alleged forced labour concerns.

The proposed tariffs, ranging between 10% and 12.5%, are expected to replace earlier measures and form a more permanent trade policy framework. However, officials have not yet provided a timeline for implementation.

War risk insurance costs for ships travelling through the southern Red Sea surged after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers. The increase reflects growing concerns over security risks in a key global shipping route amid escalating Middle East tensions.

Insurance premiums for some voyages more than doubled, with rates rising above 1% of a ship’s value from around 0.3% last week. Ships linked to Saudi ports and those passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait face higher costs due to increased attack risks.

The latest escalation adds pressure on global shipping as companies already face disruptions from instability around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warned that vessels may increasingly reroute to avoid high-risk areas, raising transportation costs and supply chain concerns.

The average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.58%, its highest level in nearly a year, increasing borrowing costs for homebuyers. The rise comes as higher oil prices continue to strain household budgets and add pressure to affordability.

Elevated mortgage rates are reducing purchasing power and discouraging prospective buyers, contributing to sluggish home sales. Even small increases in rates can significantly raise monthly payments, prompting some buyers to delay home purchases.

The uptick in rates reflects rising 10-year Treasury yields, driven by inflation concerns linked to surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions. As expectations for sustained inflation grow, bond yields and mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated.

Gold prices fell more than 2% as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, fuelling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes. The metal retreated after hitting a two-week high in the previous session.

Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar added pressure on gold, reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset. Higher bond yields, driven by expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy, weighed on investor sentiment toward bullion.

Markets are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with traders increasingly pricing in a rate hike. Other precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, also declined amid the broader selloff.

• Tesla and Alphabet shares dropped sharply after their latest results, as investors shifted focus from strong revenue growth to rising costs and profitability concerns. Tesla plunged 14% on an earnings miss and margin contraction, while Alphabet fell over 6% after raising its capital expenditure outlook.
• Tesla reported robust revenue and record vehicle deliveries, but higher operating expenses driven by AI, autonomous technology, and new product investments weighed heavily on margins and profits. Operating income and margins declined significantly, overshadowing growth across its core and energy businesses.
• Alphabet posted strong revenue growth, led by cloud and AI segments, but investor sentiment weakened due to a sharp increase in capital spending guidance. The reaction reflects a broader market shift, where investors are increasingly wary of heavy AI spending and demanding clearer returns on large-scale investments. Read more

Blackstone Inc. reported a strong second quarter, with distributable earnings rising 26% year-on-year. The growth was driven by profitable exits across its private equity portfolio and continued strength in asset sales, underscoring improving deal activity and valuations.

The firm also benefited from strategic investments tied to artificial intelligence, which have begun to generate meaningful returns. Blackstone has been increasing its exposure to AI-linked sectors, positioning itself to capitalize on long-term technological shifts and rising enterprise demand.

Despite a still-evolving macro environment, the results highlight Blackstone’s ability to monetize investments and deploy capital effectively. The combination of exits and thematic bets like AI is supporting earnings momentum and reinforcing confidence in its investment strategy.

Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel, its highest in eight weeks, after Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The escalation signals a widening of the conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh supply concerns as a key global trade route comes under threat. Oil has rallied sharply, up about 35% this month and over 60% this year, pushing fuel prices higher and reigniting inflation worries. The geopolitical flare-up has also lifted US Treasury yields, reflecting growing market anxiety over prolonged disruptions to energy flows.

• U.S. President Donald Trump’s top technology adviser, Michael Kratsios, has been briefed on reports that an OpenAI model may have behaved unpredictably or “gone rogue,” according to a White House official. The development has drawn attention at senior levels of government.
• The White House is actively monitoring the situation, reflecting growing concern over the risks posed by advanced artificial intelligence systems. Officials are assessing potential implications for safety, reliability, and oversight as AI capabilities rapidly evolve.
• The incident underscores increasing regulatory and policy focus on AI governance in the United States, as authorities weigh the need for stronger safeguards, transparency, and accountability in the deployment of cutting-edge AI technologies.

The U.S. Treasury is ramping up short-term bill issuance to meet rising borrowing needs driven by larger deficits and higher interest costs. While strong demand from money market funds has absorbed the supply, analysts warn that heavy reliance on T-bills increases rollover risk and exposure to rising interest rates.

Bill issuance is expected to surge to $827 billion in 2026, significantly higher than last year. The strategy helps contain borrowing costs in the near term but shortens the average maturity of debt, making refinancing more frequent. Concerns are also emerging that demand may not keep pace with supply, especially in the near term.

Alphabet announced strong second-quarter earnings, but its shares declined significantly. The company plans to substantially increase its capital expenditures for artificial intelligence. This massive spending hike comes as Google Cloud revenue saw substantial growth. CEO Sundar Pichai addressed concerns about Google's competitive position in the AI race. Investors and analysts are weighing the potential returns of this significant AI investment. Read more

The rise in oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, with the two-year yield hitting a 17-month high. Traders increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with probabilities rising sharply for both July and September meetings. Investors now await jobless claims data for further insight into economic strength and policy direction.