Extreme heat can erase hundreds of thousands of jobs in India's cities by 2050: World Bank

New Delhi: Indian cities are set to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs over the coming decades as extreme heat makes outdoor work unsafe, raising the economic cost of climate change, according to a World Bank report.

New Delhi is projected to lose the equivalent of 266,000 full-time jobs by 2030 because working hours will be rendered unsafe by extreme heat. The losses are expected to rise to 418,000 jobs by 2050. Kolkata could lose 360,000 jobs by 2030 and 391,000 by 2050.

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Mumbai is projected to lose 204,000 jobs by 2030 and 255,000 by 2050, while Chennai could lose the equivalent of 141,000 and 145,000 jobs, respectively.

Across South Asia, extreme heat is already costing the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs each year and could reduce the region's economy by nearly 7% by 2050 if countries fail to adapt, the report said. With South Asia expected to add 280 million people of working age by 2050, rising temperatures pose one of the biggest threats to jobs, productivity and long-term economic growth.

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"South Asia's cities are central to the region's future, but rising temperatures are putting jobs, livelihoods and economic growth at risk," said Johannes Zutt, World Bank vice president for South Asia.

The report said the official heat toll is likely to be understated.

Understated Heat Toll

The report said Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport is among a handful of major airports globally expected to experience temperatures approaching or exceeding 50°C for multiple days a year by 2030, conditions that could force airlines to reduce passenger loads or cargo.

It also noted that 38% of Delhi Metro commuters’ total travel time is spent walking, increasing their exposure to dangerous heat. Patna is projected to record one of the sharpest increases in heat-related working-hour losses, with the share of annual working hours rendered unsafe rising from 2.4% in 2030 to 6.3% by 2080. Jaipur’s losses are expected to increase from 1.5% to 2.9% over the same period.

The report said the official heat toll is likely to be understated because deaths are often attributed to cardiac or renal failure rather than heat exposure. It cited analysis linking a single five-day heatwave in India to about 30,000 excess deaths.

At the same time, the World Bank said rising temperatures are creating a significant investment opportunity. India’s sustainable cooling market could be worth $1.6 trillion by 2040, driven by demand for energy-efficient air conditioners, green buildings and climate-resilient infrastructure. The report also found that heat early warning systems in Indian cities generate about $50 in benefits for every $1 invested.