Futures Lab

Embracing data science, artificial intelligence/machine learning and alternative analysis to revolutionize policy-driven research

Banner image: Dr. Benjamin Jensen/Created using the Midjourney web app

The Futures Lab

Our goal is to add empirical rigor to foresight and policy analysis through the integration of computational social science methods. A changing world calls for new research methods that unlock diverse perspectives and creativity. While our focus is on the changing character of competition and conflict, our scholars have helped teams unlock insights on geoeconomics, innovation, development, migration, and human security as well. We conduct independent research, convene experts from diverse backgrounds, and offer robust reports with tailored policy recommendations that inform decision-making in a rapidly evolving landscape. Bring us your questions, concerns, and data and we will help you visualize and describe alternative futures.

Data Science and Forecasting

Look back to look ahead. The baseline prediction for any possible future starts with understanding past patterns and trends. The Futures Lab uses a diverse mix of statistical forecasting techniques to analyze how systems can change over time.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Elevate insight with AI. The Futures Lab employs a novel mix of AI/ML models, ranging from natural language processing to generative AI models to analyze continuity and change in the trends almost certain to create new geopolitical challenges in the 21st century. Our scholars have the technical training to tailor models to our partners specific needs and questions. Recently, the Futures Lab, in partnership with Scale AI, incorporates advanced large language models (LLMs) to analyze security and international affairs. Using Scale AI's Donovan Platform, we tailor LLMs to uncover deep insights in complex global security issues, aligning AI capabilities with strategic objectives. This initiative enhances our research in areas like strategic-level wargaming and domain-specific decision support, offering nuanced, data-driven strategies for a rapidly evolving world.

Red Teaming and Wargaming

Embrace uncertainty and creativity. When the future is uncertain, outliers reign. The Futures Lab uses a mix of red teaming and wargaming to help partners understand strategy as a complex system. Our approach to gaming integrates data analysis and controlled experiments to help partners generate and evaluate new strategies.

Scenario Modelling

Show the context surrounding decision making. The Futures Lab employs multiple scenario-generation and modeling techniques to stress test possible policy solutions to major global challenges. These methods range from traditional trend-based scenarios to formal modeling and campaign analysis.

This program is made possible through the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); United Nations: International Organization for Migration (IOM); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); General Atomics; Lockheed Martin; Meta; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA); Carnegie Corporation of New York; Gray Space Strategies; and Scale AI.

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Red Kraken: The Coming Age of Agentic Cyber Strategy

In a tabletop exercise, members of Congress faced Red Kraken, an AI agent trained to emulate Beijing. Benjamin Jensen and Emily Harding examine how China could target ports and logistics to delay U.S. mobilization and argue for AI-enabled gaming to strengthen cyber defenses.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Emily Harding — July 28, 2026

Reindustrialization and Great Power Competition: Deterrence by Capacity

The United States uses more munitions than are stockpiled, and its adversaries are noticing. In this piece, Dr. Benjamin Jensen argues that using capacity, a coefficient of deterrence, can alter the time horizon to solve the "empty bins" problem in Washington.

Brief by Benjamin Jensen — July 27, 2026

A Tale of Two Strategic Attacks: The Race to End the War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is now a race between two competing, attritional theories of victory. While Ukraine is focused on maximizing drone production, high payoff deep strikes to hold Russia’s oil and gas, Moscow is trying target critical infrastructure and major political and economic centers like Kyiv to coerce Ukraine.

Commentary by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan — July 15, 2026

The Geography of Coercion: Russian Missile and Drone Campaigns in Ukraine

How does Russia decide where to strike? This analysis maps the evolving geography of Russian missile and drone attacks, revealing how Moscow targets Ukraine’s military, infrastructure, and cities to maximize coercive pressure.

Brief by Marcus Welsch, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman — July 7, 2026

What to Know About Chinese AI Models

Chinese AI models are rapidly closing the gap with U.S. frontier systems. This analysis examines what their growing capabilities, lower costs, and open-weight strategy mean for global AI competition and U.S. policy.

Critical Questions by Yasir Atalan — July 2, 2026

Audio Briefs

Irregular Warfare: Winning the Cognitive Domain

An audio version of "⁠Irregular Warfare: Winning the Cognitive Domain⁠," a new commentary by CSIS’s Erol Yayboke with Nickolas Wilcox. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Erol Yayboke and Nickolas Wilcox — June 18, 2026

Audio Briefs

Irregular Warfare: Winning the Cognitive Domain

The United States should intentionally leverage data for agentic AI models to catch up to adversaries and to win the cognitive domain.

Commentary by Erol Yayboke and Nickolas Wilcox — June 18, 2026

Economic Warfare and Military Power

As strategic competition intensifies, the United States needs a clearer way to use finance, trade, industrial policy, and regulation to strengthen its own defense base while making it harder for adversaries to turn economic strength into military power. 

Brief by Benjamin Jensen and Jacob Clayton — May 26, 2026

Audio Briefs

The Vatican Just Outmaneuvered Washington on AI

An audio version of "⁠The Vatican Just Outmaneuvered Washington on AI⁠," a new commentary by CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen. This audio was generated with text-to-speech by Eleven Labs. 

Podcast Episode by Benjamin Jensen — May 26, 2026

Audio Briefs