ASML is the leader in lithography systems for manufacturing semiconductors with 90% market share. Lithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. Lithography allows chipmakers to increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML’s largest clients are TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron.

While the investment world remains focused on earnings from mega-cap technology, energy prices continue to pump higher while interest rates across the yield curve head north. Crude oil (WTI) rose another 2.3% on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of $88.60/barrel and closing near our recently proposed initial target of $86/barrel. Brent oil popped almost 3%, closing at $93.65 after hitting an intraday peak of $95.50. At the beginning of July, WTI was down near $67 while Brent was at $70. Spot gasoline had dropped to $2.84/gallon in mid-June to early July after reaching an intraday high of $3.78/gallon on May 18. Unfortunately, gas has quickly re-bounded in July, hitting a high of $3.48 yesterday. Before the war began, gas was down at $2.00/gallon.

Netherlands-based ASML Holdings N.V. provides advanced semiconductor capital equipment solutions. ASML manufactures ultraviolet lithography systems critical to the production of integrated circuits. The company, based in Europe's top technology hub near Eindhoven, has operations in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, and employs 33,000 people. The company supplies both primary semiconductor companies such as Intel and Samsung as well as merchant foundry companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor. Together with its partners, ASML is driving the development of more affordable, more powerful, and more energy-efficient chips and devices.

While the S&P 500 and S&P 100 continue to close in on their early June all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remains in a triangle, getting closer and closer to the apex. With all the wild moves within technology, it is surprising that the QQQ price range is tightening as the ETF puts in higher lows and lower highs. The ETF is at the same level as it was two months ago, the daily Bollinger Bands (BBs) are cinching -- with the width of the BBs closing in on the tightest levels we've seen this year. When volatility tightens, it can sometimes lead to a good-sized move (either way) in an index or individual stock. Technology earnings do not start flowing heavily until the last week of July, so it's possible we see more directionless trading. There have been some decent moves in crypto currencies this month. Of the three we follow (Bitcoin BTC, Ethereum ETH, and Solana SOL), ETH looks the most interesting. They all remain in wicked bear markets since BTC's October 2025 all-time high, ETH's 8/2025 peak, and SOL's 1/2025 top. On the weekly chart, ETH appears to have completed a five-wave decline and is sitting right below its bear-market trendline. On the daily chart, ETH completed a small double bottom on Tuesday; since late June, upside volume (accumulation) has been evident. While we see more upside in the near term, we doubt that crypto is starting a new bull market as the conditions are not there. Near the start of prior bull markets, volume was very heavy, the COT data was positioned bullishly, and the U.S. dollar was declining.